close
close

Humza Yousaf faces a crisis of his own making, says Brian Taylor

Boby Avatar

Posted on :

Under Holyrood rules, that could go even further. If successful, it could ultimately lead to an early election at Holyrood, well before the election due in 2026.

At the same time, two other questions arise. Let go of MSPs. Does the public have confidence in the FM? And do you still maintain confidence in yourself, in your own ability? I raise this last question because I think Humza Yousaf is divided.

The Herald: Patrick Harvie, Humza Yousaf and Lorna SlaterPatrick Harvie, Humza Yousaf and Lorna Slater (Image: free)

He knows – or, rather, knew – that the Bute House Agreement with the Greens provided a substantial degree of stability to the elected SNP government. It brought protection against confidence motions. And he took care of the offer – that is, the money, the financing of public services – in the sense that it allowed the annual budget to be approved. The FM knew it. And yet, that wasn’t his way. The agreement was reached by his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon. She inherited it, along with efforts to tackle the climate emergency, as Ms Sturgeon declared, and elements such as gender reform legislation.

This does not mean that he was hostile to these elements of the government program. But they are not yours. They do not allow him to project his own leadership and his own initiatives.

It was fascinating that the Foreign Secretary began his press conference at Bute House at the end of the deal by referring to the portraits of Scotland’s First Ministers on the walls of the grand mansion. He seemed to say: I am part of that collection. I can claim my place. I am the leader. I have status in my own right.

And so, as a leader, he exercised power. He showed who was in charge by abruptly ending the pact with the Greens and, in doing so, excluding them from ministerial office.

I understand your motivation. He thought the pact was falling apart anyway. He didn’t like the idea of ​​waiting weeks for Green Party members to decide whether they would keep the deal. That seemed weak. Uncertain. Lack of self confidence. Not as a leader.

Insiders suggest to me that there was a possibility of a no-confidence vote against Patrick Harvie of the Greens because of his comments on the Cass Report on gender identity services for young people. They also say that it would have been impossible to get all SNP MPs to defend Mr Harvie. There would have been greater parliamentary unrest.


Read more from Brian Taylor

Israel, Gaza, Iran: does democracy have any answers?

Is Humza Yousaf destined to fail?


What’s more, it appears that key SNP strategists felt cornered by the Bute House Agreement. They wanted to focus more on economic growth – an issue excluded from the pact – and less on gender politics.

The calculation? That the SNP needs to regain the lead on the issues that matter most to Scots: growth, the NHS, the cost of living. Expect key initiatives on this in the coming days from the Foreign Minister. There is also the question of relative prominence. Both the SNP and the Greens are in favor of independence and climate action. But their list of priorities is different.

SNP members get up in the morning to pursue independence. The Greens put this behind the climate. In addition, there was talk of the green tail wagging the SNP dog.

Frankly, some nationalists find the Greens occasionally irritating: going from enthusiastic to friendly to smug. Having said all that, it is a bit enlightening to hear the nationalists on our airwaves accuse the Greens of “walking away” from Bute House. They were peremptorily fired.

I happened to be broadcasting to an astonished nation when the Greens’ response emerged. They accused the SNP of “an act of political cowardice”, betraying the future generation “to appease the most reactionary forces in the country”. By which they were referring to the centre-right in the SNP.

As I pointed out at the time, that language is remarkably scathing. Calmer reflection could emerge, but it will be exceptionally difficult to calm the Greens to the point of allowing the Foreign Minister to remain in office.

Once again, I understand Mr. Yousaf’s motivation. But it might have been better – strategically and arithmetically – to find a way to loosen the Agreement’s bonds while maintaining at least an informal concordat.

The Herald: Ash Regan is now a power brokerAsh Regan is now a power broker (Image: free)

Yousaf says he will now look to work with all other parties. Perhaps as the SNP did after 2007, when the budget was generally passed with concessions made to Conservative negotiators. But this is partly based on fantasy. The times are different.

After the independence referendum, parties supporting the Union are even more reluctant to support the SNP. Which leaves Ash Regan. The leadership candidate was defeated by Yousaf, who has since defected to Alex Salmond’s Alba party. His support could be crucial in the coming week.

Contemplate Yousaf’s nightmares. One, that Kate Forbes once again contests the position of Prime Minister. Two, he has to come to an agreement with Ash Regan.

Will his torment never end? Still, the FM is where it is, partly because of circumstances but mainly because of its own actions. If he wants to stay in office, he must offer concessions to Ash Regan or placate the Greens. Or both.

At this point, I think an early election at Holyrood remains relatively unlikely. Relatively. Voters would be dissatisfied and could take revenge on the Conservatives and Greens. And Ash Reagan. Apart from that, all perspectives are possible.

Welcome to the tangled web of Scottish politics.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *